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Recent Market Update Excerpts:
 
17-Jun-2020 (Wed) 8.55am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
白宫正在考虑一项1万亿美元的基础设施计划.从最新的消息来看,中美的紧张关系有趋于缓和的迹象。中目中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪与美国务卿蓬佩奥或者即将在夏威夷举行会见面.又传说美国正在修改禁止美国企业与华为进行生意往来的禁令,而美国5月份零售销售月率增长17.7% 创历史最大单月增幅,目前特朗普正在努力提振美国经济,争取连任.
 
好消息频传,市场乐观的氛圍应可能再继续推高股市一些时候,但是美国重启经济1个月后,美国的经济和疫情仍然未出现明显好转。而美国三大指数却还在历史高点徘徊,美国要推高股市越来越不容易,只能靠特朗普和联储局不龂推出刺激措施,市场將出现剧烈波动,已不象6月初那样气势如虹,6月的股市可能己形成乘高套利,乘低买入的格局.
 
个别股分析
香港有关华为概念股大涨,科技股可注意,如HI-P在89天日线的支撑下并始上涨目标1.18,支持:1.03。
 
SGX在8.12有支撑,如能上涨,将形成双底,目标8.58-9.00.现在价格8.22
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
 
香港有关华为概念股大涨,科技股可注意,如HI-P在89天日线的支撑下并始上涨目标1.18,支持:1.03。
Hong Kong's  Huawei-related stocks had soared, and technology stocks such as HI-P may be watched. Hi-p has the support of the 89-day daily line and is beginning to rise to the target price of 1.18.  Suppport is at $1.03.
 
 
 
SGX在8.12有支撑,如能上涨,将形成双底,目标8.58-9.00.现在价格8.22
SGX finds support at 8.12, and if it is able to rise further, a double-bottom will be formed. Target: 8.58-9.00. Last traded at 8.22
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
The White House is considering a $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The latest news also revealed signs of the easing of tensions between China and the United States. China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi,  and US Secretary of State Pompeo will soon meet in Hawaii, and it was also said that the US  is revising the ban that prohibits U.S. companies from doing business with Huawei. The US retail sales also rebounded strongly with a 17.7% growth in May, the largest monthly increase ever. Trump is currently working hard to boost the U.S. economy as he fights on to be reelected as President. 
 
The latest good news that propagate an optimistic market sentiment would likely help push up the market for quite some time. However,  one month after the US had restarted its economy, the US economy and the epidemic situation had not improved significantly, while the three major U.S. indices are still hovering near historical highs. As such, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the U.S. markets to be pushed up further, and the markets would need to rely on stimulus measures introduced by President Trump and the Federal Reserve to go the distance. Things are no longer like what it was in early June which saw strong momentum of gains in the markets, and the current market is likely to fluctuate up and down in volatility. The strategy for market trading in June would be more of profit-taking and buying on dip. 
 
Individual Stock analysis
Hong Kong's  Huawei-related stocks had soared, and technology stocks such as HI-P may be watched. Hi-p has the support of the 89-day daily line and is beginning to rise to the target price of 1.18.  Suppport is at $1.03.
 
SGX finds support at 8.12, and if it is able to rise further, a double-bottom will be formed. Target: 8.58-9.00. Last traded at 8.22
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
08-06-2020 (Mon) 9.00am
如果没有重大事件发生,经济将于第三季度恢复过来,一些分析师预计,在第二季度GDP严重萎缩之后,第三季度美国GDP可反弹20%。虽然特朗普有很多敌人,但特朗普也将在选举前的几个月内释放更多减税等的优惠措施。
 
6月应该是 股市的好月份,乐观情绪甚至可能延续到7月。不过,当市场一直往上大涨时,可考虑先趁高套利,然后在股价回跌时再买回。
 
 
If there be no major incident happening, the economy is set to recover in third quarter, with some analysts projecting a 20% rebound in Q3 US GDP following the severe contraction in Q2 GDP. While Trump has his fair share of enemies, Trump is set to release more goodies such as tax reductions in the months leading up to the elections.
 
June is likely going to be a good month for the markets, with the positive sentiments possibly even spilling over to July. But, when the markets keep going up so much, one may consider taking profits first and then buy back when prices retreat.
 
 
06-06-2020 (Sat) 6.00pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
海指连涨5天,气势如虹,牛气冲天.周五海指再涨44.30点,上证指数上涨11.55点,恒指上涨404.11.
  
上星期新加坡本应随美国上涨,但新交所和一些股票因MSCI事件大跌,成交量特别大.上星期六的报告,我认为一些乐观的看法会延续到六月上旬,果然全球股市都上涨,新加坡经济发展局今年首四个月已经吸引到130亿元的投资承诺,超出全年80亿元至100亿元的预期。这显示投资金开始流入新加坡,也造成本周股市大涨.
 
香港财政司司长陈茂波指出香港经济可能在第四季复苏.中国2月底,当时服务业PMI只有26.5,但恢复很迅速,财新服务业PMI到5月已经达到55了,英国、法国、德国、意大利基本上都4月探底,5月回升。从PMI上看,中国、欧美国家都已经出现转机.
 
尽管国际政治局势依然紧张,而且美国出现了大规模的示威,在大规模失业、大量企业破产及GDP下滑的背景下,但是由于投资者似乎更看重经济复苏的前景,美股继续上涨,龙其是科技股正引领美股V型反弹,而前期遭到抛售的价值股也开始在反弹中.欧央行扩大刺激计划规模,拉加德预计欧洲经济将在下半年复苏。
 
5月美国就业人数大幅增加,美联储为首的央行汹涌放水,足以点燃市场的乐观情绪,不过道指越近历史高点,压力会增高,就是破高,也要提防假突破,但是美国有特朗普,有利股市,只要新冠疫情和暴动没击跨他,股市中长期的走势这是可能向上的.
 
美元从3月的102.99开始下跌,引发全球股市大涨,美元6月5日盘中曾下跌至96.44,这己到一个相当强的支持点,闭市己上涨至96.95,美元可能从这里上涨,转跌为升,如果美元大力回升,会拉低全球股市。此外美国三大指数接近历史高点的反压会很大.美元真的开始由低点上升,如果我有股票,有获利的我会乘高套利,等跌低再买进.输钱的则持守,因股市中长期还是非常看好.
 
指数图表分析
 
道指月线图:从3月低点18213上涨到6月5曰盘中高点27338点,已上涨9129点或50%,己接近历史高点的压力区.
 
道指日线图将再上试27338,阻力会越来越大.
 
海指刚突破双平行线与89天日线的阻力,可能先上试曰线100天阻力2793点.
 
上证指数突破200天与250天曰线的阻力,可先上试2943和2965.
 
恒指刚突破重重阻力,应可再上试24855和25578.
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
 
道指月线图:从3月低点18213上涨到6月5曰盘中高点27338点,已上涨9129点或50%,己接近历史高点的压力区.
Dow monthly chart: From the March low of 18213 to the June 5th intraday high of 27338 points, it had risen 9129 points or 50%, and is nearing the resistance zone of the historical high.
 
 
 
 
道指日线图将再上试27338,阻力会越来越大.
The Dow daily chart will test 27338 again, and the resistance will increase.
 
 
 
 
海指刚突破双平行线与89天日线的阻力,可能先上试曰线100天阻力2793点.
The STI had just broken the resistance of the double parallel line and the 89-day daily line, and may first test the 100-day resistance at 2793 points.
 
 
 
 
上证指数突破200天与250天曰线的阻力,可先上试2943和2965.
Shanghai Composite Stock Index broke through the resistance of the 200-day and 250-day lines, and could test the
upside between 2943 and 2965.
 
 
 
 
恒指刚突破重重阻力,应可再上试24855和25578.
Hang Seng Index had broken through multiple resistances and should be able to test the upside between 24855 and 25578.
 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
The STI had risen for 5 days in a row, having skyrocketed in bullish momentum. On Friday, the STI rose another 44.30 points. Shanghai Composite Index rose 11.55 points. Hang Seng Index rose 404.11 points.
 
Singapore’s market should have risen in tandem with the US market last week, but SGX and some other stocks fell sharply due to the MSCI incident, accompanied by a particularly huge trading volume.  In the report last Saturday, I had written that optimistic trends will continue until early June, and indeed global markets had risen as expected. In the first four months of this year, the Singapore’s Economic Development Board secured committed investments worth $13 billion , exceeding the annual forecast of between  $8 billion to $10 billion. This showed that investment funds had begun to flow into Singapore, which was also cause for the surge in the stock market this week.
 
Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Chen Maobo pointed out that Hong Kong’s economy may recover in the fourth quarter. China’s service PMI was only 26.5 at the end of February, but recovery was very rapid with Caixin’s service PMI reaching 55 by May. Britain, France, Germany, and Italy basically bottomed in April and rebounded in May. From the perspective of PMI, China, Europe and the US had already seen turnarounds.
 
The international political situation remained tense, and there had been large-scale demonstrations in the US, against the backdrop of massive unemployment, a large number of corporate bankruptcies, and a decline in GDP. But, because investors seemed to value the prospects of economic recovery more, US stocks continued to rise, especially the technology stocks, which are leading the V-shaped rebound in US stocks. Value stocks that were previously dumped were also beginning to rebound. The European Central Bank expanded the scale of the stimulus plan, and Lagarde expects the European economy to recover in the second half of the year.
 
The number of U.S. jobs increased sharply in May, and the central bank headed by the Fed released massive liquidity, which was more than sufficient to ignite optimism in the markets. However, the nearer the Dow is to the historical high, the greater the resistance pressure. Even if it breaks a higher high, we need to be on guard against a false breakthrough. But, the US has Trump, who favours a strong market, and that is beneficial to the markets. As long as the pandemic and the violent protests do not bring him down, the mid-to-long-term trend of the stock market may still be an upward one.
 
The US dollar began to fall from 102.99 in March, triggering a global stock market surge.The US dollar fell to 96.44 intraday  on June 5th, and that was already a fairly strong support point. It then rose from there and went on to close at 96.95. The US dollar may rise from here, a possible reversal from the declines. If the dollar were to rebound strongly, it will pull down the global markets. In addition, as the three major US indexes draw closer to their respective historical highs, the resistance pressure will increase. The US dollar had indeed started to rise from the low point. If I have stocks on hand that are in-the-money, I will take profit while prices are high, and then wait till prices retreat before buying them back again. Those with  stocks that are losing money could still hold on to them, because the outlook of the stock market in the medium and long term is still very optimistic.
 
Index chart analysis
 
Dow monthly chart: From the March low of 18213 to the June 5th intraday high of 27338 points, it had risen 9129 points or 50%, and is nearing the resistance zone of the historical high.
 
The Dow daily chart will test 27338 again, and the resistance will increase.
 
The STI had just broken the resistance of the double parallel line and the 89-day daily line, and may first test the 100-day resistance at 2793 points.
 
Shanghai Composite Stock Index broke through the resistance of the 200-day and 250-day lines, and could test the upside between 2943 and 2965.
 
Hang Seng Index had broken through multiple resistances and should be able to test the upside between 24855 and 25578.
 
 
04-06-2020 (Thu) 9.00am
海指飙升88.76点,或3.4%,至2700.39点,我国结束阻断措施, 再加上新加坡为出口国的一个开放经济,将大大受益于全球经济的重启。 ComfortDelgro是表现最好的指数股,上涨8.05%,或12分 至$1.61。银行股表现出色,DBS上涨7.9%, 或$1.59,至$21.80。胜科工业上涨4.8%, 或7分,至$1.53。
 
SIA也是我们最近推荐买入的股之一,收涨4.9%或20分,至$4.31。
 
经济重启的乐观情绪,促使全球股市上扬。随着本月股市大涨,我们可考虑套利,获利回收。
 
 
The STI surged 88.76 points or 3.4% to 2700.39 as the export-oriented open economy of Singapore will greatly benefit from the reopening of economies around the world. ComfortDelgro was the best performing index stock, jumping up 8.05% or 12 cents to $1.61. Banking stocks did very well with DBS jumping 7.9% or $1.59 to $21.80. Sembcorp Ind rose 4.8% or 7 cents to $1.53.
 
SIA was another of our recent buy recommendation, and it closed up 4.9% or 20 cents to $4.31.
 
The global markets are rallying due to the optimism of the reopening of the economies. We may look to take profits as the markets rally this month.
 
 
03-06-2020 (Wed)  8.40am
 
随着阻断措施的结束,海指大涨60.77点,或2.4%,至2611.63。Ecomm最近介绍买入的新航(SIA)再大涨5.9%或23分,至$4.11。
 
Ecomm曾在4月底预测,因着经济的重启与庞大刺激措施, 经济重新开放,“我们应可期待股市在这一两个月之内有所好转”,并在5月19日(上午10.15点)的报告再次重申了这一点。这正是我们现在所看到的。
 
 
The STI surged 60.77 points or 2.4% to 2611.63 as circuit breaker measures ended. SIA, which Ecomm had recommended to buy recently, surged another 5.9% or 23 cents to $4.11.
 
Ecomm had predicted at the end of April that “we could be seeing better things for the markets within this 1 or 2 months” due to the reopening of the economy, and reiterated this point again at our 19 May (10.15am) market update.  This is what we are seeing now.
 
 
01-06-2020 (Mon) 9.00am
 
美国执意要重启经济。特朗普总统已说过,就算有第二次病毒的爆发,他也不会再次关闭经济。随着世界最大的两个经济体美国和中国重启经济,其他国家也将跟随。
 
我国社区病毒感染一直都偏低,阻断措施在6月1日结束后,将进入经济活动重新开放的第一阶段。部长黄循财在新闻发布会有提过,如果社区感染继续偏低,可能在六月底之前就可进行第二阶段的开放。
 
经济停顿导致商店和小型企业几乎完全没有收入,但随着经济的重启,情况将开始有所改善。市场情绪也有望在6月份有所改善。
 
 
The US is determined to reopen its economy. President Trump had already said that he will not shut down the economy again even if a second outbreak were to occur. With the world’s top two economies, US and China, reopening their economies, the others are following suit.
 
With the number of community cases of coronavirus being consistently low, Singapore will enter into Phase one of the reopening of economic activities after the circuit breaker measure ends on 1 June.   Minister Lawrence Wong said in a press conference that Phase two could happen before end of June if transmission rates remained low.
 
The economic shutdown resulted in shops and small businesses having practically no income, and with the reopening of the economy, things will start to improve. Market sentiments will likely start to improve in June.
 
 
30-05-2020 (Sat) 5.15pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
股市向来有“五穷六绝”的说法,但今年5月的股市并不太坏,尤其是美国三大指数屡破新高,展现出抗跌性,随着投资者情绪似乎在缓慢改善,一些资金似乎正逐渐回到股市.这种趋势可能延续到6月上旬.欧美疫情己开始放缓,经济开始逐步开放,而新冠病毒很可能成为常态,就象骨疼热症一样,会和我们相处一段相当长的时间,所以恐慌开始减少,有利股市.再说每年骨疼热症染病的人数也多过新冠病毒,死亡人数也很多.至于1918年西班牙流感,据说死亡人数4千万,而英国黑死病(鼠疫)几乎四分之一人口不见,新冠病毒和这些传染病对比,简直是小儿科,何况现在科学过步神速,借AI大数据的帮助,应可慢慢控制疫情,所以对第二波疫情大爆发,己没有那么害怕.全世界的极度量化宽松政策,可帮助经济复苏,尤其是有特朗普在的一天,美国的经济和股市还会受益.......
 
新加坡两个月的阻断措施过后,还不能全部开放,令人失望,反应在股市,就是5月修正调整.虽然疫情还是反反复复,但也开始好转, 经济开放逐渐启动,6月初的行情可能会有改善.短期还会上下波动,中长期看好.
 
 
The market has the saying “May is poor and June is bleak. Sell in May and go away.” But, the stock market in May this year had done not too badly, especially for the three major US stock indices which had  shown signs of strength, and soared to higher levels. Following a seemingly gradually improvement in  investor sentiment, it seems that some funds are gradually returning to the stock market. This trend may continue until early June. The epidemic in Europe and the United States had begun to slow down, and the economy is gradually opening up. Coping with the coronavirus in our daily lives may become the new normal, and like the dengue fever, the coronavirus may be here to stay for quite a long time. With more people embracing the new norm, the level of panic had begun to decrease, and this is beneficial to the stock market. During the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, it was said that the death toll was 40 million, while the Black Death in England killed almost a quarter of the world’s population at that time. The death toll of the coronavirus is very small in comparison. Moreover, medical science had advanced rapidly, and with the support of AI and big data, we should be able to see the epidemic gradually coming under control. Hence, even if there be a second outbreak of the virus, it would not be as feared as before.  The extreme quantitative easing measures that the world is implementing will help the economy to recover. This is especially so when Trump is still taking the helm, and the U.S. economy and stock market will benefit from it.....
 
After almost 2 months of circuit breaker measures in Singapore, the economy is still not fully open, which is rather disappointing. The stock market’s reaction to that was consolidation and correction in May. Although the number of coronavirus cases still fluctuate, the situation is turning for the better, and with the gradual reopening of the economy, market conditions may improve in June. While there may still be fluctuations in the short-term, I am optimistic in the medium and long term. 
 
 
28-05-2020 (Thu) 9.00am
新航昨日是表现最好的指数股,大涨了4.4%,或16分,至$3.76,受惠于中国民航局放宽一些航班限制的消息,以及美国航空公司股价隔夜大涨高达16%的乐观情绪。SIA在5月13日至5月21日 之间交易附加股的期间,股价从5月11日的$4.41闭市高点, 大跌至$3.57-$4.00之间。投资者可以在目前$3.76左右的价格考虑买进新航,因为随着航班限制的逐步放松,航班人数也将有所增加。
 
 
SIA was the best performing index stock yesterday, jumping 4.4% or 16  cents to $3.76 as China’s civil aviation authority eased some restrictions on flights, and US airline stocks surged as much as 16% overnight. During the trading period of SIA right shares from 13 May to 21 May, SIA share price plunged to between $3.57-$4.00, from the recent closing high of $4.41 on 11 May. Investors may look to buy SIA at around the current price of $3.76 as air traffic is set to improve with the gradual easing of flight restrictions.
 
 
19-05-2020 (Tue)  10.15am
在四月的最后一个星期,Ecomm有写过, 随着“国家将重启经济活动,以及各国将实施的刺激措施,我们应可期待股市在这一两个月之内有所好转。” 也曾提过”世界各地的医疗团队也正在测试所研发的疫苗和治疗药物,任何正面发展的消息也都将对股市有利。”
 
全世界一般正处于重启经济的道路上,这对市场有利。股市进一步上涨的障碍,当然就是新冠病毒第二度大爆发的市场担忧,而这种恐惧导致股市上周下滑。 Ecomm在此指出,受感染的病例和死亡人数的增加, 虽令人感到遗憾,但除非疫情变糟到要再次封锁经济, 或是受感染的人是重要的政治或企业领导人,否则病例有些的增加其实对经济没有什么影响, 对股市而言也只是情绪上的问题而已。 现在最重要的考量是经济重启后,会不会再度进入封锁, 就让我们探讨一下这个事关重要的课题。当各国放松封锁措施之后,病毒病例会有一些增加, 这是个合理的推测。实际上,特朗普总统曾公开承认过,封锁措施放松,会导致一些人丧命或受感染。他已经有这样的一个心理准备,但还是敦促各州重新开放经济,因为美国失业率已飙升。因此,如果新确诊病例只有一些的增加,就如特朗普预计的那样, 仅此而已是不会导致第二次的经济封锁。病例增加的数字要够大, 否则还不至于会有第二次封锁的风险。而一个可以用来衡量大难是否即将到来的方法是,新确诊病例是否开始超越历史高点,或是最近的高点,而不是单靠病例人数在某些日子增加一些些而已。人们目前仍保持谨慎态度, 预防措施一般仍在实施,所以我们应该不太可能在短期内看到病例人数大增至高点的这样一个局面。实际上,Worldometers统计数据显示,美国单日新冠病例不但没有增加, 反而呈现下降趋势(即便有好些美国州 早已 重启经济活动)。(请看以下图表)
 
随着各国店铺生意重新开放,各种庞大刺激措施的支撑,以及世界各地医疗团队正在努力研发疫苗与治疗药物的正面发展,我们因而仍有理由对股市偏向乐观。
 
 
     美国新确诊病例
                                                                                                  Source: Worldometer
 
 
In the last week of April, Ecomm had mentioned that with “countries reopening their economies, and the stimulus measures being rolled out by the various economies, we could be seeing better things for the markets within this 1 or 2 months.”  Ecomm had also mentioned that “Medical teams around the world have developed vaccines and treatments that they are testing, and any news of positive developments will also be good for the markets. “
 
So, the whole world is on the path of the reopening of the economy, and that is beneficial to the markets. The obstacle to further market gains would of course be the market fears of a resurgence of a second outbreak of the virus, and such concerns had led to market declines last week. Ecomm would like to point out here that any increase in infected cases, and deaths, although regrettable, does not have a significant effect on the economy (and hence is more of a market sentiment issue), unless it leads to another lockdown, or the person affected is an important government or corporate leader. Surely, some increase in viral cases could be expected time and again after countries eased lockdown measures. In fact, President Trump had publicly acknowledged that some people could die or become infected as a result of the easing of lockdown measures. He is expecting it (and such an expectation is reasonable) but he is still urging for the reopening of the economy nonetheless as unemployment surged in the US.  Therefore, if there is going to be just some increases in the number of cases as Trump would have already expected, that alone is not going to lead to a second lockdown. The numbers have to be huge enough to warrant concerns to the extent that a second lockdown is to be considered. One measure that could be used is when the number of new confirmed cases start to exceed the overall peak, or a recent peak, rather than just exhibiting blips of increases. It is unlikely that we will see numbers surge to that extent in the near term when people are still cautious and preventive measures still in place. In fact, the worldometer chart is showing that the daily new coronavirus cases in the United States is clearly still on a downtrend (even though some States had already started reopening their economies quite some time back). (Please refer to the above chart)
 
With the reopening of businesses around the world, the support of stimulus measures, and positive developments of a successful vaccine or cure developed by various medical teams around the world, there is still cause for optimism in the markets.      
 
16-05-2020 (Sat) 3.45pm
亚洲多数是属于发展中的国家,但在短短的两三个月中,很多的新冠疫情己受控制,在零或接近零确殄开始复工复产,合情合理.反观发达进步的欧美国家,原本预测会比亚洲更快控制疫情,但由于崇尚民生自由,结果不够快,不够严,几乎荒腔走板,惨不忍睹,疫惰的严重己超乎想象,严重影响了全世界的经济,也影响了股市原先的布局.封锁过长,可能会发生金融危机,或者大萧条,造成很多企业倒闭,工人失业,过快重启经济,又担忧第二次新冠病毒大爆发,重创经济,股市第二次探底.很多经济数据恶化,已在意料之中,但是欧美疫情如此糟糕,却是预料之外,股市今后走势更多取决于经济重启“后的进展,市场剧烈动荡,在所难免.暴跌和反弹让投资者情绪大起大落,必须密切注意,随时改变策略.
 
 
Most of Asia consist of developing countries, and yet in just a short period of two or three months, a good number of epidemics had been contained and brought down to zero cases or close to zero. Productions and operations had restarted under reasonable conditions. In contrast, the developed and advanced economies in Europe and the U.S., which were expected to bring the epidemic in their respective countries under control sooner than the Asian countries,  had seen the epidemic rampantly going out of control because of people advocating for their personal rights and freedom, and safety measures not enforced strict and fast enough. The severity of the pandemic went beyond what we could ever imagined, and had severely impacted the global economy, disrupting investment plans. If the lockdown measures were implemented for too long, it may lead to a financial crisis or a depression, with many companies closing down, and many more workers unemployed. The reopening of the economy too soon, had led to worries of a second outbreak of coronavirus, which will hit the economy hard, and lead to the markets testing the bottom for the second time. A lot of the bad economic data had been expected, but what was unexpected was the way that the epidemic had turned out so bad in Europe and the United States. The outlook of the market still depends very much on what happens after the restart of the economies, and the markets are going to be volatile, which is inevitable. The huge plunge and strong rebound in the markets had caused investor sentiment to fluctuate up and down, and we ought to pay close attention to the currently developments, and be nimble in changing our strategy at any time.
 
 
13-05-2020 (Wed) 9.00am
海指数下跌23.50点,或0.9%至2587.81点。丰益国际(Wilmar)是表现最好的指数股,大涨7.9%或28分,至$3.82,此前该集团给予谨慎乐观的看法,认为如果中国经济如预期复苏,其第二季度运营 将不会因Covid-19疫情而受到重大的影响。Wilmar是陈奕利先生在4月18日推荐的股票之一,当时Wilmar的最后交易价是$3.42。 陈先生那时候给予Wilmar的图表技术分析的阻力位是$3.82, 准准是昨天的闭市价。
 
 
The STI fell 23.50 points or 0.9% to 2587.81. But, Wilmar was the best performing index stock, surging 7.9% or 28 cents to $3.82, after the group gave a cautious optimistic view that its Q2 operations will not be significantly impacted by Covid-19 if China’s economy recovers as expected. Wilmar was one of the stocks recommended by Mr Tan Yi Li on 18 April when it last traded at $3.42. Mr Tan gave the resistance as $3.82 from his chart analysis, which was exactly the closing price yesterday.
 
 
09-05-2020 (Sat) 7.00pm
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以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
中国重启经济,复工复产有序进行,其经济可能会经历了一个不错的反弹。
 
新加坡专家预测本地病毒确殄人数将达刭3、4万个,在中国、韩国、香港、台湾的病毒确殄人数己是零或接近零.开始开启经济时.很可惜我们却突然疫情大爆发,这对市场的信心打击很大,拖累了股市上涨的速度,这也是我们的股市跑输区域国家股市的原因.现在几乎变成高点可套利,跌低可买进.很多人错过这轮大跌的低点,一直希望股市会第二次探底,让他们能安全地买进股票,但看来机会并不大,除非是全球疫情大爆发到无可收拾的地步.这也是我在3月就开始强调,当时在清货大减价时可买进股票,因为价廉物美,可以大反弹,也完全可作长期投资.即便现在己是5月,己上涨近2个月,很多股票还有半价折扣,等待顾客上门.
 
个别股图表分析 
 
凯德置地在低点己巩固了一个半月,在双底的支持下,将可能上试3.05及3.30,支持2.80.
 
城市发展的高点一波比一波高,低点也一样,还站稳在短期支持线上.目标8.24,支持7.39.
 
康福德高,受疫情重大影响,阻力重重,但比航空股好,只要开启经济,乘客马上增加,象优步(UBER)第一季度网约车订单下降,但过去三周持续反弹.突破1.65后才会有较亮丽的涨幅.目标1.84,支持1.42.
 
胜宝旺工业从历史高点6.66元下跌至最近的低点1.48元,大跌5.18元或77.7%,现在还在长期阻力线之下,但随着油价上涨,突破阻力只是时间的问题而己.目标1.79-1.88-2.01,支持1.48
 
新邮政己由亏转盈利.在长期支持线的支持下,有望突破重围.目标:0.80-0.885,支持0.605.
 
扬子江船厂己再度突破89天曰均线阻力,将可能上试1.08-1.18,支持0.96.
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
凯德置地在低点己巩固了一个半月,在双底的支持下,将可能上试3.05及3.30,支持2.80.
CapitaLand has consolidated for a month and a half, and with the support of the double bottom, it may test the upside at 3.05 and 3.30. Support 2.80.
 
 
城市发展的高点一波比一波高,低点也一样,还站稳在短期支持线上.目标8.24,支持7.39.
CityDev is still standing firm on the short-term support line. Target: 8.24. Support: 7.39.
 
 
康福德高,受疫情重大影响,阻力重重,但比航空股好,只要开启经济,乘客马上增加,象优步(UBER)第一季度网约车订单下降,但过去三周持续反弹.突破1.65后才会有较亮丽的涨幅.目标1.84,支持1.42.
ComfortDelGro is badly affected by the epidemic and encountered a lot of resistance. But it is likely to be better off than airline stocks. As long as the economy is restarted, passengers will immediately increase. Its situation is going to be similar to Uber, which saw online car-hailing orders declining in the first quarter, but there had been a continued rebound in orders for the past three weeks. ComfortDelgro will have a brighter outlook of gains if it can break above 1.65. Target 1.84, Support 1.42.
 
 
胜宝旺工业从历史高点6.66元下跌至最近的低点1.48元,大跌5.18元或77.7%,现在还在长期阻力线之下,但随着油价上涨,突破阻力只是时间的问题而己.目标1.79-1.88-2.01,支持1.48
Sembcorp Industries had dropped from the historical high of $6.66 to the recent low of $1.48, a sharp decline of $5.18 or 77.7%. It is still below the long-term resistance line, but as oil prices rise, it is only a matter of time before it breaks above the resistance. Target 1.79-1.88-2.01. Support 1.48
 
 
新邮政己由亏转盈利.在长期支持线的支持下,有望突破重围.目标:0.80-0.885,支持0.605.
SingPost has turned from loss to profit. With the support of the long-term support line, there is hope for a breakthrough. Target: 0.80-0.885, support 0.605.
 
 
扬子江船厂己再度突破89天曰均线阻力,将可能上试1.08-1.18,支持0.96.
Yangzijiang had once again broken above the 89-day moving average resistance, and will likely test the upside at 1.08-1.18. Support 0.96.
 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
China has restarted its economy with the resumption of production and operation proceeding in an orderly manner, and this could lead to a good rebound in its economy.
 
Experts in Singapore predict that the number of local confirmed coronavirus cases may hit 30,000 or 40,000. The number of confirmed cases in China, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan are already zero or close to zero, and these countries are starting to reopen their economies. Unfortunately, the epidemic situation had worsened here in Singapore, and market confidence took a hit as a result, which is why our stock market had underperformed the regional markets. Now it is almost about taking profits at high points, and buying back at low points. Many people had missed out on the low point at last round’s market plunge,  hoping that the stock market will bottom out for the second time, so that they can safely buy the stocks. But it looks like the chance of that happening is not too great, unless the global pandemic deteriorates to unprecedented levels. That was why I emphasized in March at that time when stock prices were at huge discounts, that you can buy stocks, and can also invest for the long-term, because stock prices can have a strong rebound. Even though it is May now, and the markets may have risen for almost 2 months, there are still many stocks out there that are at half-price discounts, awaiting for buyers to invest. 
 
Individual stock chart analysis 
 
CapitaLand has consolidated for a month and a half, and with the support of the double bottom, it may test the upside at 3.05 and 3.30. Support 2.80.
 
CityDev is still standing firm on the short-term support line. Target: 8.24. Support: 7.39.
 
ComfortDelGro is badly affected by the epidemic and encountered a lot of resistance. But it is likely to be better off than airline stocks. As long as the economy is restarted, passengers will immediately increase. Its situation is going to be similar to Uber, which saw online car-hailing orders declining in the first quarter, but there had been a continued rebound in orders for the past three weeks. ComfortDelgro will have a brighter outlook of gains if it can break above 1.65. Target 1.84, Support 1.42.
 
Sembcorp Industries had dropped from the historical high of $6.66 to the recent low of $1.48, a sharp decline of $5.18 or 77.7%. It is still below the long-term resistance line, but as oil prices rise, it is only a matter of time before it breaks above the resistance. Target 1.79-1.88-2.01. Support 1.48
 
SingPost has turned from loss to profit. With the support of the long-term support line, there is hope for a breakthrough. Target: 0.80-0.885, support 0.605.
 
Yangzijiang had once again broken above the 89-day moving average resistance, and will likely test the upside at 1.08-1.18. Support 0.96.
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
06-05-2020 (Wed) 9.00am
加利福尼亚是美国最大的经济体,该州的新冠病毒单日死亡和新病例人数有显示下降的趋势。 (请参阅图表)。 因此, 州长宣布加州将允许一些零售企业可以最早在本周五开业。 实际上,整个美国的死亡和新病例人数最近都有 显示下降的趋势。 (请参阅图表)。 这是好消息, 也是美国州放宽限制的根据,虽说经济重启后,大家仍将密切关注局势。
 
但是,时尚连锁店J Crew  成为本轮疫情中,美国首个申请破产保护的主要零售商。据报道,挪威邮轮(Norwegian Cruise)和零售商Lord&Taylor也将跟随在后。海上石油钻井公司 也未能幸免,Diamond Offshore drilling在大约两周前也已申请破产。只要病毒大流行还延续着,即使经济重启,经济恢复将会是个非常缓慢的过程。今年下半年预计还会有更多企业申请破产。
 
Marketwatch报道,虽然美国4月份申请破产的企业增加了26%,但令人惊讶的是,申请个人消费者破产的美国人与去年相比竟然下降了47%! 此原因之一是政府为人们提供了冠状病毒援助配套,其中的援助包括向每人发送1200美元,向已婚夫妇发送2400美元,向每个孩子发送500美元,以及为小型企业预留了3490亿美元可宽恕的贷款。但是,这些援助配套能做到的也有限。由于三千万美国人最近已失业,而失去的工作应该不太可能那么快就全部恢复过来,今年下半年估计将会有更多的人申请破产。
 
但就目前而言,市场在接下来的一个月左右,应该大体上还会继续走高,因为国家重启经济,经济活动增加,乐观情绪重燃,而疫情在严厉措施依然实施中,短期内应该不会那么容易失控。
 
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                                 Cases per day in the Entire US (Source: Worldometer)
 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
California, the largest economy in the United States, is seeing a declining trend in the number of deaths and new cases caused by the coronavirus. (See chart above). This has led to the governor announcing that California will allow some retail business to open as early as this Friday. In fact, the United States as a whole has been seeing a declining trend in the death toll and new cases. (See chart above). This is good news and justification for the easing of restrictions in the US, although everyone will still be keeping a close tab on the situation after the economy reopens.
 
However, fashion chain J Crew became the first major US retailer to file for bankruptcy protection during the coronavirus lockdown. Norwegian Cruise and retailer Lord & Taylor are reportedly following suit. Offshore oil drilling companies are not spared either; Diamond offshore drilling filed for bankruptcy about 2 weeks ago. 
Many more companies are expected to file for bankruptcy in the second half of the year. As long as the pandemic continues on, economic recovery is going to be very gradual and slow even though economies are reopening.
 
Marketwatch reported that while there was a 26% increase in businesses filing for bankruptcy in April, the number of individuals filing for consumer bankruptcy surprisingly went down by 47% compared to a year ago. One reason for this is the Coronavirus Aid package offered to them by the government, which included  $1,200 payments to qualifying individuals, $2,400 to married couples and $500 per child, as well as $349 billion being set aside in potential forgivable loans to small businesses. But, there is only that much this aid package can do. With 30 million Americans out of work, and with those lost jobs unlikely to be restored soon, more individuals could be filing for bankruptcy in the second half of this year.
 
But for now, and possibly for the next one month or so, the market is likely to continue to move higher, with countries reopening their economies, which fuels economic activities and optimism, while the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be kept at bay in the near term with all the careful precautions taken.
 
 
02-05-2020 (Sat) 7.40pm
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以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
个别股图表分析
UMS是科技股,科技股前景被看好,己突破垂重重阻力.跌低可买进.目标:0.915,支持0.735
 
ST Engineering 目标:3.80支持3.18,股价还算便宜,开始突破阻力.
 
SINGTEL获得5G执照,前景看好.目标:3.02,阻力2.60
 
油价开始上涨,KEPPEL CORP可注意. 目标6.18,支持5.69
 
YANGZIJIANG 从1.08跌至目前的0.985,可能巳足够.目标:1.19,支持:0.955
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
 
 
UMS是科技股,科技股前景被看好,己突破垂重重阻力.跌低可买进.目标:0.915,支持0.735
UMS is a tech stock. As the prospects of tech stocks are good, and this stock had already broken above multiple levels of resistance, we may consider buying in when its stock price retreats. Target: 0.915. Support: 0.735.
 
 
 
ST Engineering 目标:3.80支持3.18,股价还算便宜,开始突破阻力.
ST Engineering Target: 3.80 Support: 3.18. Its stock price is still cheap, and it is starting to break above the resistance.
 
 
 
SINGTEL获得5G执照,前景看好.目标:3.02,阻力2.60
SINGTEL obtained the 5G license, and has a promising outlook. Target: 3.02, Resistance: 2.60
 
 
 
油价开始上涨,KEPPEL CORP可注意. 目标6.18,支持5.69
As oil prices started to rise, we may watch out for KEPPEL CORP. Target: 6.18, Support 5.69
 
 
 
YANGZIJIANG 从1.08跌至目前的0.895,可能巳足够.目标:1.19,支持:0.955
YANGZIJIANG fell from 1.08 to the current price of 0.895, and the correction may already be sufficiently done. Target: 1.19, Support: 0.955
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
Individual Stock Chart analysis:
 
UMS is a tech stock. As the prospects of tech stocks are good, and this stock had already broken above multiple levels of resistance, we may consider buying in when its stock price retreats. Target: 0.915. Support: 0.735.
 
ST Engineering Target: 3.80 Support: 3.18. Its stock price is still cheap, and it is starting to break above the resistance.
 
SINGTEL obtained the 5G license, and has a promising outlook. Target: 3.02, Resistance: 2.60
 
As oil prices started to rise, we may watch out for KEPPEL CORP. Target: 6.18, Support 5.69
 
YANGZIJIANG fell from 1.08 to the current price of 0.895, and the correction may already be sufficiently done. Target: 1.19, Support: 0.955
 
 
30-04-2020 (Thu) 9.00am
陈奕利先生3月在股市大跌至谷底的时候,大胆预测4月的股市将会有不错的表现,事实已证明正是如此, 股市已大涨至牛市的涨幅。从一周前开始,Ecomm也一直提倡对股市乐观的看法,当时外面几乎所有分析师和新闻都在呼吁股市短期内大跌的风险, 但我们坚守我们的分析与立场,市场过后也的确走高。
 
 
Mr Tan Yi Li made the bold prediction when the markets were hitting the bottom in March, that the markets will do well in April, and this has indeed turned out to be true as the markets had since made strong bullish gains. Ecomm had also continued to call for market optimism from a week ago, at the time when almost every analyst and news out there are calling for near-term market doom. We stayed true to our analysis and market stance , and the markets had since moved higher.  
 
 
29-04-2020 (Wed) 9.15am
目前市场有两股对立的势力。一方面是冠状病毒大流行所带来的损害,以及油价的暴跌。另一方面是经济开放,而与此同时仍维持了社会安全措施,疫情情况有所改善,以及前所未有的经济支撑措施。这两股对立的势力都是强大有力的,因而造成了一些股市上下的动荡。新冠病毒大流行所造成的经济损害, 所知的都多已反映在市场价格里,至于未知不明朗的那部分相信只会在较晚的阶段才会显现出来。尽管市场最近出现了强劲的反弹,但大多数股市仍处于大跌损的状态。以海指为例,尽管最近本地股市反弹,海指从年头到现在仍下跌了21%。新冠病毒引起了全球市场的暴跌,市场的前景仍取决于疫情的发展。但是,以目前来看,全球死亡人数已经超过216,900,人民与各国不再轻看安全防范措施,并继续努力并肩抗战病毒。主要经济体放宽锁定措施是逐步的,而与此同时仍将维持严格的安全防范措施。世界各地的医疗团队也正在测试所研发的疫苗和治疗药物,任何正面发展的消息也都将对股市有利。因此,还是有理由对市场持有谨慎乐观态度。
 
 
There are now two credible opposing forces in the markets – on one hand we have the destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the oil price plunge, on the other, we have the reopening of economies with safety measures still in place, an improving pandemic situation, and unprecedented economic supporting measures. Both sides are strong credible forces, and hence contributing to the volatilities in the markets. Much of the known economic fallout arising from the pandemic is already factored into the markets, while the unknown will likely be revealed only at a much later stage. Despite of the recent strong rally, most markets are still deep in the red. Take STI for example, it is still down 21% from the start of the year despite of the recent rally. The pandemic caused the plunge in the global markets and its developments will still dictate the outlook of the markets. But, for now, with global deaths exceeding 216,900, people and nations are no longer complacent about the safety measures, and are continuing to take a strong combative stance against the virus.  The easing of lockdown measures in the major economies will be done in gradual stages with strict safety measures still in place. Medical teams around the world have developed vaccines and treatments that they are testing, and any news of positive developments will also be good for the markets. Hence, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. 
 
 
28-04-2020 (Tue) 9.00am
美国股市飙升, 受美国一些州开放部分经济的提振。这些州包括乔治亚州,阿拉斯加,蒙大纳州,田纳西州,俄克拉荷马州,明尼苏达州,密西西比州,科罗拉多州和南卡罗来纳州。
 
在日本央行宣布加强刺激措施,以及更多的美国州重新开放经济之前,Ecomm此前早已预测,股市将因经济重新开放,以及更多的刺激措施而上涨。除非我们看到疫情明显持续恶化,否则市场情绪将会趋向较正面的方向。在短期内,我们应该不太可能会看到第二次冠状病毒浪潮重现,这是因为经济的重新开放是分阶段非常谨慎进行的,而且保持社交距離与安全措施照样严格地实行。这不仅是做此开放经济决定的领导人,饭碗可能会受到影响,这也关乎很多人生命的安危, 所以没有人敢乱来。因此,已采取的严格安全措施,加上加强的刺激措施,以及经济重新开放带来的乐观情绪,将有助于股市在一个月左右有所提振。
 
 
US stocks surged on the partial reopening of the economy in some US states. These states include Georgia, Alaska, Montanna, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Mississippi, Colorado, and South Carolina. 
 
Before Japan’s central bank announced enhanced stimulus measures, and more US states reopened their economies, Ecomm had before that already predicted that the markets will go up due to more stimulus measures and the reopening of the economies. Unless we see an obvious deterioration in the pandemic situation, market sentiments are likely turning more towards the positive.  A second wave of coronavirus is unlikely to take place in the near term, because the reopening of economies are done in gradual stages, and in a cautious manner with strict social distancing and safety measures in place. It is not just that the heads of the governors who made the decision to reopen the economies are on the chopping block, we are talking about many lives that are at stake, and no one will take the safety measures lightly. Hence, the strict safety measures that are in place, coupled with the enhanced stimulus measures, and the optimism that comes with the reopening of economies, will likely help lift up the markets within this one month or so.
 
 
22-04-2020  (Wed) 2.19pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
早盘海指跌40多点,道指也下跌,可能调整已足够.现在道指期货上涨186点,海指只下跌12点.最重要的是原油期货己下跌至10美元,巳见底,低过成本,原油将可能上涨,股市将受益,可能可重新布局.
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
With the STI falling more than 40 points in the early session today, and the Dow also taking the fall, the markets may have corrected enough already. The Dow futures have now risen 186 points, while the STI is only down by 12 points. Most importantly, crude oil futures had already fallen below US$10, is bottoming out, and is now lower than the cost of production. Crude oil price may rise from here, and it will benefit the markets. We may consider restrategising our investments. 
 
 
18-04-2020 (Sat) 4.40pm
 
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
美媒报道称吉利德的药物瑞德西韦有望治疗冠状病毒肺炎。美国政府也在讨论重启经济,周五道指涨704.81点,或2.99%,报24242.49点;纳指涨117.78点,或1.38%,报8650.14点;标普500指数涨75.01点,或2.68%,报2874.56点。
 
海指调整期可能己结束,将可能继续上涨.我常说牛市要等股价大跌至心仪的价格时买进很难,一般下跌只是下跌并不多,所以想再以0.51买进云顶,5.28买进SIA,很可能要再等10年.
 
美联储褐皮书称美国经济活动急剧萎缩。美国3月零售销售锐减、4月纽约制造业指数降至历史最低水平。美国原油期货跌破20美元创18年新低。另一方面投资者也关注官方的重启经济计划,高盛认为,如果在经济复工复产之后,美国不出现第二波疫情,股市就不大可能再创新低。如今美股已进入技术型牛市,欧股也上涨20%以上,进入技术型牛市.而亚太股市全线收涨,MSCI亚太指数(除日本市场)涨至3月12日以来新高。日经225指数涨3%,韩国综指涨3%。全球股市开始上涨.
 
穆迪预测美国今年经济收缩5.8%。预测今年欧洲经济收缩约7%。但预测中国经济第二季开始反弹 全年最多收缩1%或持平
 
指数图表分析
 
道指越战越勇,不断破最近新高,特朗普效应开始显现.
 
海指月线图:这一轮暴跌,并未跌破A-B源自1998至今的长期支持线,只止步于344月线,应将会有更好的表现.
 
上证指数周五盘中上涨至2854,与我们的目标2857只相差3点,周五成交量增加,将可突破2857点,上试2891.
 
恒指月线图显示还站稳在A-B的长期支持线上.近一轮大跌的低点准准触及200的月线就反弹.
 
 
个别股图表分析
康福德高10天日线切上20天日线,短期可能会上涨.在新冠疫情恶化时买进较有看头.在阻断期过后,疫情好转,应会反弹
 
Hi-P已突破双平行线的阻力.支持:0.89阻力:1.05-1.14-1.18
 
SATS准准处在200天曰线上,疫情好转时将有大反弹.
 
OCBC在短期支持线的支持下,继续上涨,阻力9.93,支持8.75
 
ST ENGINEERING 在大成交量的支持下节节上升10天日线切上20天.阻力:3.80,支持:3.18.
 
WILMAR历史性高点是7.29,目前3.42.10天日线切上20及30日线.阻力3.82,支持3.35
 
 
道指越战越勇,不断破最近新高,特朗普效应开始显现.
The Dow is on the roll, having broken recent new highs one after another. The Trump effect is starting to show. 
 
 
 
海指月线图:这一轮暴跌,并未跌破A-B源自1998至今的长期支持线,只止步于344月线,应将会有更好的表现.
STI monthly chart: This round of market plunge did not result in the index falling below the long-term A-B support line from 1998. It only fell to 344-month line, and the index will likely do better.
 
 
 
上证指数周五盘中上涨至2854,与我们的目标2857只相差3点,周五成交量增加,将可突破2857点,上试2891.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 2854 on Friday, which is only 3 points away from our target of 2857. As the trading volume increased on Friday, the index may break above 2857 points and test the upside at 2891.
 
 
 
恒指月线图显示还站稳在A-B的长期支持线上.近一轮大跌的低点准准触及200的月线就反弹.
The monthly chart of the HSI shows that it is still standing on the long-term support line of A-B. The recent market plunge saw the index exactly hitting the 200 month line and then rebounded from there. 
 
 
 
 
康福德高10天日线切上20天日线,短期可能会上涨.在新冠疫情恶化时买进较有看头.在阻断期过后,疫情好转,应会反弹
ComfortDelGro's 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day daily line, and may rise in the short term. It will be more promising to buy this stock during the worsening of the coronavirus pandemic situation. After the social distancing measures are lifted, and the epidemic takes a turn for the better, its stock price should rebound. 
 
 
 
Hi-P已突破双平行线的阻力.支持:0.89阻力:1.05-1.14-1.18
Hi-P has already broken the resistance of the double parallel line. Support: 0.89 Resistance: 1.05-1.14-1.18
 
 
 
SATS准准处在200天曰线上,疫情好转时将有大反弹.
SATS is exactly above the 200-day line, and there will be a huge rebound when the epidemic situation improves.
 
 
 
OCBC在短期支持线的支持下,继续上涨,阻力9.93,支持8.75
OCBC continues to move higher with the support of the short-term support line. Resistance: 9.93. Support: 8.75
 
 
ST ENGINEERING 在大成交量的支持下节节上升10天日线切上20天.阻力:3.80,支持:3.18.
ST ENGINEERING continued to move higher, supported by huge trading volume. Its 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day line. Resistance: 3.80. Support: 3.18.
 
 
 
WILMAR历史性高点是7.29,目前3.42.10天日线切上20及30日线.阻力3.82,支持3.35
Wilmar's historic high is at 7.29, and is last traded at 3.42. The 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day and 30-day lines. Resistance: 3.82. Support: 3.35.
 
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
The US media reported that Gilead’s antiviral drug Remdesivir is showing promise for the treatment of the coronavirus. The US government is also discussing restarting the economy. On Friday, the Dow rose 704.81 points, or 2.99%, to 24242.49 points. Nasdaq rose 117.78 points, or 1.38%, to 8650.14 points. S&P 500 rose 75.01 points, or 2.68%, to 2874.56 points. 
 
The correction period of the STI may have already ended, and the index may continue to move higher. I had often said before that it is very difficult to wait until the bull market declines into a phase whereby you find a much desired low price to enter into the market. That is because previously in a bull market when stock prices decline, they do not really drop a lot. Therefore, if you want to buy Genting at a price like 51 cents or buy SIA at $5.28 again, you may possibly have to wait another 10 years. 
 
It was stated in the Fed's Beige Book that US economic activity had shrunk sharply. The US retail sales dropped sharply in March and the New York manufacturing index also fell to the lowest level in April. US crude oil futures fell below $ 20 to hit an 18-year low. On the other hand, investors are also concerned about the official plans of the governments to restart the economy. Goldman Sachs believes that if a second wave of the epidemic does not occur in the U.S. after the economy restarts, the stock market is unlikely to hit a new low.  U.S. stocks have now entered into a technical bull market, while European stocks have also entered into a technical bull run, having risen by more than 20%. The Asia-Pacific stock market closed up across the board, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (Ex-Japan) rising to a new high since March 12. The Nikkei 225 index rose 3%. South Korean KOSPI Index rose 3%. Global stock markets are beginning to go higher.
 
Moody's predicts that the US economy will contract by 5.8% this year, and that the European economy will contract by about 7% this year. However, it predicts that the Chinese economy will rebound in the second quarter, and will contract by at most 1% for the whole year. 
 
 
Index chart analysis
 
The Dow is on the roll, having broken recent new highs one after another. The Trump effect is starting to show. 
 
STI monthly chart: This round of market plunge did not result in the index falling below the long-term A-B support line from 1998. It only fell to 344-month line, and the index will likely do better.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 2854 on Friday, which is only 3 points away from our target of 2857. As the trading volume increased on Friday, the index may break above 2857 points and test the upside at 2891.
 
The monthly chart of the HSI shows that it is still standing on the long-term support line of A-B. The recent market plunge saw the index exactly hitting the 200 month line and then rebounded from there. 
 
 
Analysis of individual stock charts
ComfortDelGro's 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day daily line, and may rise in the short term. It will be more promising to buy this stock during the worsening of the coronavirus pandemic situation. After the social distancing measures are lifted, and the epidemic takes a turn for the better, its stock price should rebound. 
 
Hi-P has already broken the resistance of the double parallel line. Support: 0.89 Resistance: 1.05-1.14-1.18
 
SATS is exactly above the 200-day line, and there will be a huge rebound when the epidemic situation improves.
 
OCBC continues to move higher with the support of the short-term support line. Resistance: 9.93. Support: 8.75
 
ST ENGINEERING continued to move higher, supported by huge trading volume. Its 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day line. Resistance: 3.80. Support: 3.18.
 
Wilmar's historic high is at 7.29, and is last traded at 3.42. The 10-day daily line had cut above the 20-day and 30-day lines. Resistance: 3.82. Support: 3.35.
 
 
15-04-2020 (Wed) 8.45am
美国股市上涨。在冠状病毒疫情有所改善的迹象下,美国十个州(包括纽约和加利福尼亚)企划重开经济活动。特朗普政府将5月1日作为重启经济的目标日期。这是随着美国过去几天的单日死亡人数和新病例显示下降的趋势。 (请参考以下图表)。
 
海指开盘上涨3.48点,但在中国出口数据的推动下,随后大涨,最终收涨67.32点或2.6%,至2634.57点。海指飙升与陈奕利先生牛市上涨的看法一致。
 
正如所预期的,所采取的安全措施有所见效,冠状病毒的状况正在改善当中。美国,以及其它重受疫情冲击的国家如意大利和西班牙,都看到新病例与死亡人数有显示 下降趋势(请参阅以下图表)。前所未有的刺激措施,新病例下降趋势,以及计划中的重启经济,是市场走高的可靠组合因素。
 
据报道,占美国就业人数近一半的美国小企业, 在申请政府救助计划的贷款时, 被银行排除在外。从长远来看,冠状病毒大流行对经济所造成的损害 (直接或间接的) 的确仍存有不确定性。国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,世界将“很可能”经历自1930年代以来最严重的经济衰退,而高盛则表示,经济衰退将比金融危机更严重四倍。
 
但,随着冠状病毒情况有所改善的迹象,市场趋势可能还是会在这一或两个月内继续走高。
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
                                          US coronavirus Chart - Downtrend in New cases
 
                                           US Coronavirus Chart - Downtrend in Daily New Deaths
 
 
                                            Italy Coronavirus Chart - Downtrend in Daily New cases
 
                                     Spain Coronavirus Chart - Downtrend in Daily Cases
 
                                                          Source: All charts taken from Worldometer
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
US stocks rose after 10 states (including New York and California) made plans to reopen their economies amid signs of improvement in the coronavirus situation. The Trump administration signaled May 1st as a potential date for easing the control measures. This came as the daily death toll and new cases are showing a declining trend in US for the past few days. (Please see chart above).  
 
The STI opened up 3.48 points but went on to surge 67.32 points or 2.6% at 2634.57, boosted by China’s export data. The surge in STI is in line with Mr Tan Yi Li’s bullish call.
 
Just as we had expected, the coronavirus situation is improving with all the safety measures in place.  The number of new coronavirus cases Is showing a declining trend not just in the US but also in hard hit places like Italy and Spain (Please see charts above). The unprecedented stimulus measures, declining trend of coronavirus cases, and the planned reopening of the economy is a sure combination of factors for the markets to move higher. 
 
Small businesses in US, which accounts for nearly half of US employment, are reportedly being shut out of the US loans in the aid packages. There are still uncertainties in terms of the economic damage (both direct and indirect) caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the longer term. IMF said that the world will ‘very likely’ experience its worst recession since the 1930s, while Goldman said that the downturn will be four times worse than the financial crisis.  
 
In the meantime, with signs of an improving coronavirus situation, the markets are likely to continue to move higher, possibly within this 1 or 2 months.
 
 
14-04-2020 (Tue) 8.35am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
新浪财经14曰报导,高盛认为,在政策支持之下,美股可能已经见底。高盛表示,在决策者“不惜一切代价”的政策立场之下,美国股市不大可能再创新低。如果在经济复工复产之后,美国不出现第二波疫情,股市就不大可能再创新低。虽然是预测,但与我们的看法极为相似.我认为牛市第一大波上涨,第二大调整波可能下跌1/4,1/3,一半,甚至回到第一波的起点.就是回到第一波的起点,也是正常,只要不跌破前低,也还是牛市,因为三波将是又快又猛.
 
虽然一些投行如摩根土丹利认为美国疫情“远未结束” ,经济今夏重启但过程漫长,说得也有道理.而且放松经济管制往往会导致冠状病毒再次爆发,风险还是有的.不过我要强调现在的股市一般是反映未来半年后的经济状况,
 
只要你认为全球量化极度宽松,能刺激经济增长,下半年经济应会比现在好,明年经济可能大反弹,因此在这种极度恐慌,每天翻开报纸或听新闻,都要被吓得半死,极度恐惧买入的股票,可攻可守,而且以后可能再也买不到这么便宜的股票.
 
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
Sina reported on the 14th that Goldman Sachs believes US stocks may have already bottomed out on policy support. Goldman Sachs said that the “do whatever it takes” approach of policy makers has made it unlikely for equity markets to make new lows. If a second surge in infections does not occur in the US after the economy reopens, then it is unlikely for the stock markets to hit a new low. Although it is just a prediction, it is very similar to my opinion. I think that the first major bullish wave is on the rise, the second correction wave may fall by 1/4, 1/3, half, or even to the starting point of the first wave, and that is normal. As long as it does not fall below the previous low, it is still on a bullish run, because the third wave could come in fast and furious.
 
Investment banks such as Morgan Stanley believes that the US epidemic is "far from over" and that it is going to be a long hard road even if the economy restarts in summer. What they are saying  makes sense because the relaxing of control measures may lead to a resurgence in the number of cases of the coronavirus. There are indeed risks involved.  But, I want to emphasize that the current stock market generally reflects the economic situation after six months.
 
Think on the lines that global quantitative easing measures can stimulate economic growth, and that the economy in the second half of the year should be better than it is now, and may even rebound sharply next year. Therefore, in this current state of extreme panic, when people get scared to death whenever they read or listen to the news headlines, you may go on the offensive and defensive on the stocks that you buy. Besides, you may not be able to buy stocks at such cheap prices again. 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
09-04-2020 (Thu)  8.55am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
美国传染病研究所所长福西称本周过后美国疫情将好转。道指大涨,油价大涨。美元指数下跌.
 
股价如此低,就可能会有很大的反弹空间.3月14日我己指出四月股市可能表现不错.在我介绍(以51分)买进云顶时,我认为牛市己悄悄的来了.如果想在疫情受控制时进场,可能己太晚了,股价可能己大幅度上涨,先知先觉己可乘高套利卖给你了.
上星期六(4月4日)我在ECOMM报告又搬出"百年一遇的机会","千载难逢的好机会",那是在疫惰最惨烈,最无助时,我发出的反向的声音.报告中也指出极端绝望是牛市的开始(请参考4月4日ECOMM的报告).
 
全球债务迅速增长,经济或遭“重挫”,现在股价己涨升一大截,可能有时也会有调整.但现时股价还算便宜,还可以排阵布局.
 
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
Dr Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said that the US should see the beginning of a turnaround after this week. The Dow soared, oil prices jumped, while the dollar index fell.
 
If the stock prices are already so low, there may possibly be a lot more room for rebound. On March 14, I pointed out that the stock markets may perform well in April. When I introduced buying Genting (at 51 cents), I perceived that the bull market had quietly arrived. It will be too late to enter into the market after the epidemic is under control, because stock prices would have risen sharply by then. Those who had bought earlier who had sold the shares to you then at a higher price. 
 
Last Saturday (on April 4th) I mentioned in the ECOMM report of a "once in a century” opportunity, and that we should seize this opportunity, at a time when the epidemic was at its worst. I issued a contrarian voice, and pointed out in the report that “when the markets are at the bottom of despair, that is probably when the bull market begins.” (Refer to the ECOMM report on April 4).
 
Global debt is growing rapidly, and the economy may be "severely depressed". Stock prices had risen a lot, and may at times still go into correction.  However, the stock prices are still cheap and we may still make plans to strategize. 
 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
07-04-2020 (Tue) 8.55am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
我曾很多次强调四月是关键点,也可能是新冠疫情的拐点,隔离闭关使中国战胜控制病毒,疫情严重的欧美国家也将受惠.星朝六(4月4日)我在ECOMM报告又搬出"百年一遇的机会","千载难逢的好机会",那是在疫惰最惨烈,最无助时,我发出的反向的声音.报告中也指出极端绝望是牛市的开始(请参考4月4日ECOMM的报告).
 
欧美疫情只是一丁点化的改善,美国疫情还特别严重,但股市却多会在疫情高峰时转向,这也是我多次强调的.如果要安全,在疫情完全受控制时买进,己经太迟了,抢得先机多数是胜利者.
当然股市并不可能一帆风顺的天天上涨,尤其在还未了解新冠19这种病毒的情况下,股市还是会随疫情的变化而上下波动,更何况全球的经济在几乎全停顿下,股市的动荡在所难免,但只要股市能在坎坷的道路上,就是跌跌撞撞的上涨,也是上涨.只要你认为以后很难再买到这么便宜的股票,就可买进作为长期的投资.
 
 
个别股图表分析
 
HI-P月线图:在89月线的支持下上涨.阻力0.96-1.19.支持0.80-0.70.
 
吉宝企业KeppelCorp在双底的支持下上涨,阻力:6.10-6.20.支持5.18.
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
HI-P月线图:在89月线的支持下上涨.阻力0.96-1.19.支持0.80-0.70.
HI-P monthly chart: Rising with the support from the 89-month line. Resistance 0.96-1.19. Support 0.80-0.70.
 
 
 
吉宝企业KeppelCorp在双底的支持下上涨,阻力:6.10-6.20.支持5.18.
KeppelCorp, rose with the support of a double bottom, Resistance: 6.10-6.20. Support 5.18.
 
 
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
I had repeatedly emphasized that April is a pivotal month, which could also be the inflection point of the coronavirus pandemic. The lockdown and quarantine measures in China had led to the Chinese victoriously bringing the viral outbreak under control. Similarly, the US and the European countries will also benefit from such measures undertaken in their own respective countries. In the Ecomm market update on 4 April, I had mentioned that this is a once-in-a-century occurrence, and that we should seize the opportunity, sending out a contrarian voice at a time when the epidemic was at its worst. It was also pointed out in the report that “when the markets are at the bottom of despair, that is probably when the bull market begins.” (Refer to the ECOMM report on April 4).
 
The pandemic in Europe and the US is only showing a small improvement. The viral outbreak in the US is still very serious. But, the stock market will mostly see a turnaround at the peak of the epidemic, which is something that I had repeatedly emphasized. If you want to stay safe, and buy only after the epidemic is completely under control, it will be too late by then. Those who seize the opportunity early will emerge as winners. 
 
Of course, it is not going to be smooth sailing for the stock markets every day, especially when there are still a lot of unknowns pertaining to the coronavirus, and the stock market will still fluctuate up and down according to the developments of the pandemic. Not to mention the global economy is almost completely at a standstill, and the stock market will inevitably be volatile. But, even if the markets rise on a bumpy road, those are still market gains at the end of the day. As long as you perceive that it will be difficult to buy stocks at such cheap prices in the future, you will likely buy stocks as long-term investments.
 
Analysis of individual stocks
 
HI-P monthly chart: Rising with the support from the 89-month line. Resistance 0.96-1.19. Support 0.80-0.70.
 
KeppelCorp, rose with the support of a double bottom, Resistance: 6.10-6.20. Support 5.18.
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
04-04-2020 (Sat) 3.00pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
彻底的绝望才是牛市开始,现在是不是己达到彻底绝望,虽然很难决定,不过己经够惨了,堪比1930年的大萧条,彻底绝望可能过几天就到了也说不定.百年一遇的事情我们遇到了,幸或不幸在于个人,在大家己绝望时,我们要克股恐惧,好好掌握这一个千载难逢的好机会.正如习近平总书记所说“危和机总是同生并存的,克服了危即是机”
 
指数图表分析
 
每个国家都采取极度宽松政策,向市场注入流动性。这么大的流动性,不会流向中小企业,最后多数会流向股市,图表可借流动性转为正面.
 
海指月线图显示还站在344天日平均线之上,还有可能上涨,因2009年也是触及344月平均线就进入牛市.
 
 
 
 
海指月线图显示还站在344天日平均线之上,还有可能上涨,因2009年也是触及344月平均线就进入牛市.
The monthly chart of the STI shows that it is still standing above the 344-day daily average, and may still possibly rise. In 2009, the same had also occurred before the start of the bull market. 
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
When the markets are at the bottom of despair, that is probably when the bull market begins. Although it is difficult to know whether the market has already reached the bottom of despair, the situation is already very despondent. The total despair that is comparable to the Great Depression of 1930 perhaps could be seen in the next few days. This is a once-in-a-century occurrence, and whether it turns out to be a boon or a misfortune, it all depends on you. When everyone is despondent, we need to overcome the fear and seize the opportunity. General Secretary Xi Jinping once said, "Crisis and Opportunity coexist at the same time, opportunity arrives when you are able to overcome the crisis "
 
Index chart analysis
Every country had adopted extremely loose policies to inject liquidity into the market. Such large liquidity will not flow to SMEs, and most of it will eventually flow to the stock market. The charts could turn positive due to the liquidity.
 
The monthly chart of the STI shows that it is still standing above the 344-day daily average, and may still possibly rise. In 2009, the same had also occurred before the start of the bull market. 
 
 
28-03-2020 (Sat) 6.00pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
...牛市一般都在最惨,最惊慌时出现,现在人们己非常惊慌, 而天文数字的援助计划,将加速熊变牛,现在很多股票的价格己很合理,也很便宜,己适合长期投资,虽然股市还将随新冠疫情的发展大幅度波动.在最惊慌悬崖式暴跌时,我介绍以0.51分买进云顶,我认为牛市己悄悄的来了.如果想在疫情受控制时进场,可能己太晚了,股价可能己大幅度上涨,先知先觉己可乘高套利卖给你了.
 
指数分析
道指日线图正尝试突破21712关口,再挑战22655.
 
道指月线图又重回A-B的长期支持线上.好!
 
海指跌破344月线后,开始上涨,再度重回344月线,好! 2009年也是动到344月线就转为大牛市,这一次也可能一样.
 
上证指数在双底的支持下上涨,前景不错.阻力在2883.
 
恒指阻力在24899
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
 
 
 
道指日线图正尝试突破21712关口,再挑战22655.
The Dow Daily chart is now attempting to break above the 21712 mark, before challenging the upside at 22655.
 
 
 
 
道指月线图又重回A-B的长期支持线上.好!
The Dow monthly chart had regained above the A-B long-term support line. That's good!
 
 
 
 
海指跌破344月线后,开始上涨,再度重回344月线,好!.2009年也是动到344月线就转为大牛市,这一次也可能一样.
The STI fell below the 344 monthly line, and then started to rise, having regained above the 344 month line. That's good! In 2009, the market turned into a huge bull upon touching the 344 month line. We may possibly see the same this time round.
 
 
 
上证指数在双底的支持下上涨,前景不错.阻力在2883.
The Shanghai Composite Index had risen after obtaining the support of a double-bottom. Prospects are good. Resistance is at 2883.
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
...the bull market generally appears in the worst and the most panic situation. When people are panicking, and with the astronomical emergency aid package coming up, it will accelerate the turning of bears into bulls. Many stock prices are now very reasonable and very cheap, and is suitable for long-term investment, even though the stock market may still fluctuate greatly in tandem with the development of the coronavirus epidemic. When the market is most panicky, and during the cliff-like plunge, I had recommended buying Genting at 51 cents as I believed that the bull market had quietly come. If you wait until the epidemic is under control, it may be too late to enter the market by then,as stock prices may have already risen sharply.
 
Index Chart Analysis
The Dow Daily chart is now attempting to break above the 21712 mark, before challenging the upside at 22655.
 
The Dow monthly chart had regained above the A-B long-term support line. That's good!
 
The STI fell below the 344 monthly line, and then started to rise, having regained above the 344 month line. That's good! In 2009, the market turned into a huge bull upon touching the 344 month line. We may possibly see the same this time round.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index had risen after obtaining the support of a double-bottom. Prospects are good. Resistance is at 2883.
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
 
 
26-03-2020 (Thu) 9.00am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
为应对全球经济面临严重的衰退,美国提出的货币政策和财政政策是史上最大的经济救助法案,德国政府23日也批准了一项“前所未有”的援助计划,全世畀都在提出对新冠疫情的援助计划.现在疫情和经济还在恶化中,但股市之前的悬崖式的暴跌,己经反映出来,牛市一般都在最惨,最惊慌时出现,可能就是现在, 而天文数字的援助计划,将加速熊变牛,以11年股市的高点到最近的低点计算,海指大跌39%,道指大跌36%,己有条件由熊转牛.现在很多股票的价格己很合理,也很便宜,己适合长期投资,虽然股市还将随新冠疫情的发展大幅度波动,但如果想在疫情受控制时进场,可能己太晚了,股价可能己大幅度上涨,先知先觉己可乘高套利卖给你了.我个人议为有下跌可累积买进.
 
 
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
“In response to the severe recession facing the global economy, the monetary  and fiscal policies proposed by the United States are the largest economic rescue bills in history. The German government had also approved an "unprecedented" aid plan on the 23rd. The whole world is coming up with economic rescue plans to deal with the coronavirus crisis. Even though the economy and epidemic situation are still in deterioration, this had already been reflected in the cliff-like slump in the markets. The bull market usually appears during the worst phase of the markets and when people panic the most, and that could be now, even as the astronomical aid packages could very well transform the bears into bulls in accelerated mode. Based on the 11-year high of the stock market to the latest lows, the STI had fallen 39%, the Dow had fallen 36%, and in the current scenario, there is sufficient precondition for the bears to turn into bulls. Many of the stock prices are now at very reasonable levels. It is also very suitably cheap for long-term investment. Although the stock markets will fluctuate significantly in accordance to the development of the coronavirus epidemic, it will be too late for you to enter into the market when the epidemic is brought under control, as stock prices would have already risen sharply by then, and I would sell my stocks to you at that time, if I had bought them earlier at a cheaper price. I personally think that if there is a decline in the markets, you can buy incrementally and cumulatively.”
 
 
25-03-2020 (Wed) 4.50pm
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
 
美国的近两个月来3次宽松政策,昨天联储局再宣布无限量化宽松(QE),购买国债和住房抵押支持证券(MBS),此外国会也在讨论2万亿美元经济救助计划,2009年单单两次拨款7000亿,就解救了金融海啸,这次如果所有的计划都落实,那金额就大到吓死人,什么新冠病毒造成的经济危机,都应该可以解决,唯一的条件就是要落实这些措施.
 
对于新冠疫情,美国全国采取隔离措施,而欧洲疫情高峰期可能在下月初出现,这可能会加速股市反弹的速度,甚至从熊市转入牛市.
 
(本文只供参考, 投资买卖,必须審慎,自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
 
( All contents provided are for informational purposes only and are at the user's own risk. You should consider carefully,and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
 
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
 
The United States introduced three rounds of easing measures in the recent two months. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing (QE) measures, involving the buying of Treasury bonds and  mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the US Congress is also discussing a $2 trillion economic aid package. In 2009, the US merely released $700 billion worth of liquidity twice, and it was able to rescue the economy out of the financial tsunami. This time round if all the aid packages were to be implemented, the amount of funds would be frighteningly astronomical. It should be able to resolve whatever economic crisis that had been caused by the coronavirus. The only condition is that the implementation of these aid measures must come into being. 
 
As for the coronavirus epidemic, the US had adopted nationwide social distancing measures, while Europe could be seeing the peak of the coronavirus epidemic early next month. As such, we could see a rebound in the market at accelerated speed, even the transition of the bear market into bull market. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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