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Ecomm.sg : Ecommunicating Investment Trading Ideas
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以下是我们每日内容的其中的片段。会员可以用ID和PASSWORD进入网站阅读完整的内容.
The following are excerpts of our past daily updates. Members may login using ID and password to view our full market updates. ------------------------------------------------------------------
Recent Market Update Excerpts:
20-03-2023 (Mon) 7.45am
本周的股市焦点都注射在周四（3 月 23 日）凌晨 2 点（新加坡时间）将公布的 美联储利率决议与预测。 继美国3家银行倒闭后，大家都在关注美联储在本周的会议上是否还会像欧洲央行上周一样,加息50个基点。 金融市场脆弱, 市场情绪疲软，上周公布的最新美国 CPI数据 显示下降趋势,美国通胀率同比从 6.4% 下降至 6.0%，核心通胀率同比也从 5.6% 下降至 5.5%, 美联储因此是有可能在加息方面较为谨慎。
目前的市场焦点仍是美国银行倒闭的任何后患，以及美联储的加息决议与展望。上周一早上传来美国将担保硅谷银行客户全部的银行存款是个好消息，因为在这之前硅谷银行客户在周一最多只能领取FDIC所担保的$250,000款额。硅谷银行多数的客户的存款是超过$250,000的，有些客户的存款甚至是上亿的 （例如，Roku当时的存款额就超过4亿了）, 所以美国当局愿意担保硅谷银行客户所有的存款，大大减低了此危机的风险。但是，后来又传出签字银行倒闭，以及瑞士信贷本的财务问题，导致人心慌慌。一边是央行与大银行抢救，另一边是更多银行出现问题，导致美国股市一天大起，一天大跌。
**最新消息显示瑞银(UBS)以 32 亿美元收购瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)，缓解了这次瑞士信贷的危机。
目前的局势看来是央行与大银行势必抢救这次金融的危机。除非到了更超大的危机，大银行自身难保，央行没钱抢救的地步，否则危机暂且可迎刃而解，股市也可回弹。
今年早些时候,陈奕利先生非常准确地预测,不看好3月的股市，而目前股市已大跌，也可有反弹的机会。 尽管如此，因着仍有很多风险和不确定性因素的存在，股市仍可能出现波动。
(Ecomm.sg提供的本文只供参考, 投资买卖，必须審慎，自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
( All contents provided by Ecomm.sg are for informational purposes only. Access to and the use of the contents are at the user's own risk. You should assess your situation and risk tolerance, and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and projection at 2am (Singapore time) on Thursday (23 March). Following the collapse of 3 U.S. banks, the world watches closely whether the Fed will raise the interest rates by 50 basis points just like the European Central Bank did last week. There may be a case for restrain on the part of the Federal Reserve, considering the vulnerable financial markets and weak market sentiments, and that the latest U.S. CPI announced last week showed inflation rate coming down from 6.4% to 6.0% year-on-year, and core inflation rate coming down from 5.6% to 5.5% year-on-year.
The current market focus is still on the U.S. banking crisis and the Fed's interest rate hike decision, and outlook. It was good news last Monday morning that the U.S. would guarantee the entire sums of bank deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, because before that announcement, Silicon Valley Bank depositors could on Monday only withdraw up to a a maximum of $250,000 as per guaranteed by the FDIC. Most of the Silicon Valley Bank's customers deposited more than $250,000, with some clients even depositing hundreds of millions of dollars (Take Roku for example whose deposits exceeded US$400 million at that time). Therefore, when the US regulators were willing to guarantee All of the deposits of Silicon Valley Bank clients, it greatly reduces the risks and contagion of the crisis. However, the news of the collapse of Signature Bank, as well as financing issues at Credit Suisse followed, complicating matters and causing panic in the markets. It is the case of the central banks and big banks on the rescue on one hand, and more banks getting into trouble on the other. This led to the U.S. stock market rallying one day, and plunging in the next last week.
**The latest news reported that UBS is buying Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion, and this has effectively eased the Credit Suisse crisis.
The current situation seems to be that the central bank and the big banks are determined to rescue troubled banks and resolve the financial crisis. Unless there is an even bigger crisis, where the big banks cannot even help themselves, and the central bank no longer has the money or means to provide the financial aid, the crisis is being resolved for the time being and the stock markets still have opportunities of rebounds.
Earlier this year, Mr Tan Yi Li was very accurate in predicting a pessimistic market in March, and now that the markets had plunged, there will be opportunities of a rebound. Nonetheless, there are still existing risks and uncertainties, and there may still be volatilities in the markets.
16-01-2023 (Mon) 9.00am
去年股市大跌的 几个月里，很多人很悲观，并担忧股市会进入大熊市，那个时期Ecomm稳住人心,曾好几次提到股市仍会有一线希望回升。 （请参阅 12 月 5 日、10 月 31 日和 9 月 12 日的 Ecomm 分析）。 Ecomm 曾特别分析提到的两项股市期望,那就是美联储加息步伐放缓,以及中国采取正面措施, 正是今年推动今年股市的两大主要因素。
Ecomm曾多次提到云顶和新航，目前已看到其股价上扬。 云顶股价 在 2020 年 3 月跌至 51 分时， Ecomm分析讯息中便已提到云顶这支股值得买入。 在2022 年12 月 12 日的讯息中，因着云顶优异的业绩，以及中国可能重新开放, Ecomm 再次重申看好云顶股价，（请参阅 Ecomm 12 月 12 日和 12 月 19 日的讯息），云顶股价也从那时候的 89 分飙升至 上周五的$1.01 ，涨幅为 13.4%。 新航是我们多次提到的另一只股票,新航上周五飙升至 $5.86 ，创下 2020 年 2 月以来的最高收盘价。
In the bearish months last year, Ecomm had repeatedly mentioned there will be silver linings for the market to rebound. (Please refer to the 5 Dec, 31 Oct, and 12 Sep Ecomm updates). In particular, Ecomm had analysed that a slower pace of rate hikes from the Fed, and positive measures from China are among the silver linings that could bring hope to the markets; it turned out that these came into being and were the prime movers of the market in the start of this year.
Ecomm had repeatedly mentioned that Genting and SIA are the stocks that we may look into, and their respective share prices have jumped. when Genting hit 51 cents on March 2020, Ecomm had already mentioned it to be a worthy stock to buy. On 12 Dec, Ecomm had reiterated optimism in Genting due to its strong earnings and the possible reopening of China (Refer to Ecomm updates on 12 Dec, 19 Dec), and Genting's share price had soared since then from 89 cents to last Friday's $1.01 for a 13.4% gain. In fact, SIA, another stock we had repeatedly mentioned, soared to $5.86 last Friday to its best close since Feb 2020.
10-01-2023 (Tue) 8.00am
以下是辉立证券首席股票经纪陈奕利先生的股市分析:
"投资者趁低买进特斯拉，推动纳指上涨。
市场关注美国12月消费者价格指数与银行财报。本周投资者密切关注周四的12月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，也注意摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行在周五将公布的财报。
Tesla（特斯拉）已触及双平行线的较强的支持线，可能底部已出现(图表请参看ECOMM网站)。汽车股可开始注意。"
(Ecomm.sg提供的本文只供参考, 投资买卖，必须審慎，自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
( All contents provided by Ecomm.sg are for informational purposes only. Access to and the use of the contents are at the user's own risk. You should assess your situation and risk tolerance, and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
The following is the market analysis by Phillip Securities Principal Remisier Mr Willie Tan Yi Li:
"Investors bought in Tesla on a bargain hunting basis, pushing the Nasdaq index higher.
The market will focus on the U.S. inflation data, and the upcoming bank earnings. Investors this week will be watching closely this Thursday's U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as well as earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Friday.
Tesla has touched a strong support of the double parallel channel, and the bottom may have possibly emerged (see the chart on ECOMM website). We may start to watch out for Auto stocks. "
28-12-2022 (Wed) 8.05am
这一轮香港恒生指数从 2021年2月高点31183下跌至 2022年10月底低点14597点，累计下跌16586，大跌53.18%。14597点有可能是熊市的底。香港股市可能长期前景不错。(图表请参看ECOMM网站)。1月8日中国放宽出入境政策，对中国和香港股市利好，新加坡也会被带动。
This round of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell from the high of 31183 points in February 2021 to a low of 14597 points in end-October 2022, with a cumulative drop of 16586 points, or 53.18%. 14597 points may be the bottom of the bear market, and the Hong Kong stock market may have a good long-term outlook. (Please refer to the chart in Ecomm website). China will reopen its borders and drop Covid quarantine from January 8, which is good for the stock markets of China and Hong Kong, and Singapore's stock market will also be driven higher. "
05-09-2022 (Mon) 9.30am
美联储加息、经济放缓的担忧,以及俄乌战争混乱的局势,是市场持续所关注的。
在负面消息累积之下，投资者将继续密切关注美联储加息的进展。加息对市场和经济具有重大影响,美国将于 9 月 13 日公布的关键通胀率数据,以及 9 月 20至21 日的美联储会议都将备受关注。美联储官员确实已明确表示，美国通胀率必须令人信服地从目前的 8.5% 迈向至 2%，否则美联储将继续加息。
在风暴中，新加坡股市与经济还算有抗跌能力，这也并不意外，毕竟新加坡资产一向被视为避险资产。
(Ecomm.sg提供的本文只供参考, 投资买卖，必须審慎，自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
STI 1-year Chart
( All contents provided by Ecomm.sg are for informational purposes only. Access to and the use of the contents are at the user's own risk. You should assess your situation and risk tolerance, and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
The Fed's interest rate hikes, concerns of a slowdown in the economy, and the disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war continue to be the main concerns of the market.
In the midst of negative news, investors continue to watch closely the developments of the Fed rate hikes, which will have a significant impact on the markets and the economy. The key inflation rate in the U.S. to be released on 13 September, and the Fed meeting on 20-21 September are closely watched. The Fed officials had already made it clear that the U.S. inflation rate has to come down convincingly from the current 8.5% towards 2%, or else the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
Amidst the storms, the Singapore markets and economy had remained resilient, and that does not come as a surprise since Singapore assets have been viewed as safe haven assets.
04-07-2022 (Mon) 9.00am
高通胀和经济衰退风险仍然是市场的担忧...
在 70 年代末和 1980 年代初期间，全球主要经济体一直在与 10% 以上的高通胀抗战，同期间也得应对好几次的经济衰退。高通胀持续好几年,直到保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）出任美联储主席，果断采取大举加息至20%的举措后，多年的高通胀才终于结束，高失业率也随之回落 。大家在 1980 年代初的大通胀年中所吸取的教训是，当一个经济体同时面临高通胀和经济衰退（称为滞胀）时，首先应当解决的是高通胀问题，解决了高通胀以后,高失业率问题就会迎刃而解。因此，投资者不应期望, 经济增长如果一旦放缓时，美联储会对加息走软。正如Ecomm 之前提到的，只要通胀数字仍在非常高位的水平，美联储无论如何应该还是会继续加息的。
因此，那些目前正在偿还浮动利率房贷(variable home loan)的, 要有所准备, 利息可继续上升，直到全球高通胀问题得以控制为止。
(Ecomm.sg提供的本文只供参考, 投资买卖，必须審慎，自负责任。版权所有,未经允许,禁止转载。)
( All contents provided by Ecomm.sg are for informational purposes only. Access to and the use of the contents are at the user's own risk. You should assess your situation and risk tolerance, and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. All losses and costs associated with investing are your responsibility. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, or redistributed without permission.)
High inflation and recession risks remain as the market concerns of the day...
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the major global economies had been battling persistent high inflation levels of above 10% for years, and recessions had taken place as well. It was only when Paul Volcker became the Fed chairman and took the decisive action of aggressively raising interest rates to as high as 20% that the years of high inflation finally came to an end, and a decline in high unemployment rate followed. The lesson learnt during the great inflation years in the early 1980s is that when faced with both high inflation and recession (a phenomenon known as stagflation), one should resolve the high inflation problem first, and the coming down of high unemployment numbers will follow. Therefore, investors should not have the expectation that should economic growth declines, the Fed will go soft on interest rate hikes. As mentioned before, as long as the inflation numbers remain very high, the interest rate hikes will continue on.
As such, those of us who are currently on variable home loan packages ought to be prepared to pay higher home loan interests in the months ahead until the global high inflation problem comes under control.
9th August 2022: Happy National Day! 新加坡国庆日快乐
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Information provided by this website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Ecomm Investment does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of any services, content and/or information provided, and does not accept any liability for any errors and/or misinformation for any reason whatsoever (including negligence of Ecomm Investment). In no event is Ecomm Investment liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use or reliance of the information provided.
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